By mid-2025, a noticeable shift has emerged in the global economy: the share of the US dollar in international settlements is declining. According to independent analytical centers, the dollar now accounts for less than 55% of cross-border transactions — the lowest figure in the past decade. Meanwhile, alternative instruments such as the Chinese yuan, the euro, and local currencies used in bilateral agreements are gaining momentum.

One of the key reasons for this trend, experts say, is the growing desire among countries to reduce their reliance on the dollar in payments for raw materials and energy. Participants in international trade are increasingly closing deals directly, bypassing the US currency.

What undermines trust in the dollar

Rising political and economic turbulence in the United States has contributed to a reassessment of the dollar's role. In 2025, debates over the national debt ceiling led to a temporary suspension of several federal programs, which raised concerns among foreign holders of dollar-denominated assets. Against this backdrop, questions about the reliability of the US financial system have once again come to the forefront.

Another contributing factor has been the use of the dollar as a tool of sanctions policy. This has encouraged many countries to seek reserve alternatives and new payment systems that minimize US influence.

Who benefits from the dollar’s weakening dominance

The weakening of the dollar’s role creates opportunities for new players and approaches. Those who adapt quickly to the changing structure of international finance are positioned to benefit. Among them are:

• emerging market economies promoting local currency settlements
• Asian and Middle Eastern countries shifting commodity contracts to yuan and euro
• digital platforms and blockchain services offering alternative payment solutions
• companies operating under sanctions gaining more flexibility
• nations diversifying reserves into gold, yuan, and digital assets

What lies ahead for the dollar

Analysts do not foresee a collapse of the dollar — it will likely retain its position as the world’s leading reserve currency. However, its global dominance is gradually being eroded. Markets are broadening their view of currency risks, and payment preferences are evolving. Without a significant boost in fiscal discipline and a restoration of international confidence, the US may continue to lose ground in the global economy.

For businesses, this is a signal to rethink currency policies and diversify settlement instruments. And for investors, it’s a call to realign strategies with the new global realities, where the dollar's influence is no longer taken for granted