The situation in the oil market remains complex and ambiguous. On the one hand, exporting countries are increasing production and strengthening their positions. On the other hand, demand forecasts look restrained, while sanctions and political factors add uncertainty.

Forecasts and assessments of the International Energy Agency

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has updated its outlook for the market. According to its data, global oil supply by the end of 2025 will rise by about 2.7 million barrels per day, and in 2026 it will add another 2.1 million. Demand, however, is growing much more slowly — an increase of only 740 thousand barrels per day is expected. This creates an obvious imbalance: supply is growing faster than consumption, which means oversupply is looming on the horizon.

If this trend continues, the market will face rising inventories in storage facilities. For producers, this means price pressure and reduced profitability, especially for companies with above-average production costs. For consumers, by contrast, it opens opportunities to purchase raw materials at more favorable prices, which in turn can stimulate trade and refining.

Decisions of OPEC+

In early September, OPEC+ countries confirmed their intention to increase production starting in October. Russia, according to the deputy prime minister, is meeting all its obligations under the agreement and is ready to participate in the supply growth. Saudi Arabia also plans to maintain high activity, reinforcing its leadership in the cartel.

These steps strengthen the positions of oil-exporting countries in the global market but at the same time exacerbate the oversupply problem. Additional volumes will enter the market precisely when consumption forecasts remain rather restrained. Experts note that the OPEC+ decision is more of a political and strategic move than a response to real market demand.

Sanctions and geopolitical factor

Special attention was drawn to Japan’s actions, which announced a reduction in the price cap on Russian oil to $47.6 per barrel. Although Russia’s share in Japanese imports is small, this decision is largely symbolic, confirming the G7 allies’ commitment to intensify pressure on Russian exports.

For Russia, such restrictions mean the need to expand its supply geography, including into Asia and the Middle East. For the global market, however, this step is more a signal of ongoing uncertainty: any new sanctions could affect trade routes and add to logistical costs.

Price dynamics and investor reaction

Financial markets have already responded to the new data. Oil prices fell by about 2%. The main reasons are fears of oversupply and weak demand figures in the United States. Market participants note that even with global economic growth, oil consumption may fail to keep pace with supply, meaning prices will remain under pressure.

Among the factors that increase tensions are:

• accelerated production growth in OPEC+ countries
• limited demand growth in key economies
• accumulation of strategic and commercial inventories
• sanctions and political instability

Together, these elements create a picture of uncertainty. Investors are becoming more cautious, while traders are factoring heightened volatility into their forecasts for the coming months.

At the corporate level, companies continue to look for new ways to adapt. The largest oil corporation in Saudi Arabia successfully raised $3 billion through the issuance of Islamic bonds. This shows that the sector is not limited to production and exports but actively uses financial tools to maintain stability and growth.

For investors, such steps are a signal that the oil and gas business remains resilient and able to cope with external challenges. However, raising capital is increasingly becoming a necessity rather than an option, underlining rising costs and pressure on margins.

Overall picture

The oil market situation is shaping up to be difficult: supply is steadily increasing, demand is limited, and geopolitical factors are adding fuel to the fire. In the coming months, the market will balance between expectations of new volumes and the real needs of consumers.

For producers, this is a challenge: maintaining profitability and market positions will be harder. For consumers, on the contrary, a window of opportunity is opening. But one thing is clear — the industry is entering a new phase of turbulence, where any OPEC+ decision, sanctions, or shifts in demand can dramatically change the balance of power.