U.S. Economy

U.S. CPI Up, Offering a Difficult Puzzle for Fed’s Powell

The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% MoM, posting the same increase as in the previous three months.

The U.S. Consumer Price Index rose 0.2% MoM, posting the same increase as in the previous three months. The annual rate came in at 2.6%, in line with expectations but up from 2.4% in September.

The index for shelter rose 0.4% MoM last month, making up more than half of the monthly all-items increase. Food also contributed to the rise, increasing 0.2%, with food at home rising 0.1% and food away from home up 0.2%.

Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% MoM. On an annual basis, that comes to +3.3% vs. +3.3% expected and +3.3% in September. Super Core CPI, which is core services excluding housing, was up 0.3%. Prices for used cars and trucks, airline fares, medical care, and recreation increased during the month, as the indexes for apparel, communication, and household furnishings and operations were among those that declined.

Meanwhile, according to the latest Treasury data, in October – the first month of fiscal 2025 – the U.S. spent a massive $584.2 billion, representing a mind boggling 24.3% increase YoY, and a record government outlay for the month of October. On a trailing 6-month SMA (moving average) basis, to smooth out outliers months, the spending hit $586 billion, effectively at an all time high with just the record spending spree during covid pushing government spending higher.