From 2023 to 2026, analysts expect Nio's revenue to grow at a CAGR of 27% to 115 billion yuan ($16.4 billion) as it narrows its annual net loss to 9.38 billion yuan ($1.34 billion). Most of that growth should be driven by the Chinese market, but it should also be complemented by its gradual expansion into Europe. It also plans to launch its cheaper Firefly smart car for its European customers by the end of this year.

If Nio matches those expectations in 2026, it would be comparable to Tesla between 2017 and 2018, when its revenue rose from $11.8 billion to $21.5 billion. Tesla narrowed its net loss from $1.96 billion to $976 million during those two years.

Investors shouldn't expect Nio to replicate Tesla's explosive growth trajectory because the EV market is more mature and saturated than it was six years ago. But just as Tesla was backed by big subsidies from the U.S. government, Nio is still heavily subsidized by the Chinese government, which injected billions of dollars into the company over the past four years. That support should prevent it from going bankrupt anytime soon.