After the recent correction, sentiment in the gold market has shifted back toward growth. Investors, facing ongoing uncertainty around US monetary policy and global geopolitical tensions, have begun actively revising their portfolios and turning to time-tested defensive assets. This trend is most evident in the performance of exchange-traded funds backed by physical gold, which have registered a stable inflow of capital in recent weeks.

From correction to growth

October became a turning point for gold ETFs. After a period of outflows, demand strengthened sharply: global funds increased their holdings of precious metal by 55 tonnes, while assets under management rose by 6% in a month, surpassing 500 billion dollars. This inflow was not a one-off spike — it has continued for five consecutive months, driven primarily by markets in North America and Asia.

Interestingly, the current phase of growth is shaped not only by institutional behavior but also by the renewed activity of retail capital. Analysts had initially feared that the October correction would dampen risk appetite, but it ultimately allowed “side-line” investors to enter the market at more favorable levels. As a result, total assets in gold ETFs remain below their historical peaks, leaving substantial room for further buying.

Drivers of renewed demand

The rise in interest in gold cannot be attributed to emotions alone. It is driven by a combination of interconnected macroeconomic and geopolitical forces. Above all, the market is reacting to expectations of a monetary easing cycle, particularly from the US Federal Reserve, which traditionally reduces the appeal of yield-bearing dollar assets. At the same time, central banks — especially across the Eurasian region — continue to increase their gold reserves.

Geopolitical tensions also persist: conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe keep creating a backdrop that pushes capital into safe-haven assets. In this environment, gold acts not just as shelter but as a tool that helps preserve long-term purchasing power. The key conditions supporting stable demand can be summarized as follows:

• Slowing global economic growth and rising recession fears.
• Investors’ desire to reduce exposure to currency risks, especially those tied to dollar-denominated assets.
• Gold being undervalued in long-term strategic portfolios due to its historical volatility.
• Greater transparency and accessibility of ETF products for retail investors.
• A steady shift toward diversification, with gold moving from an “add-on” to a core portfolio component.

These factors work together and reinforce each other, creating a solid foundation for interest that goes far beyond short-term speculation.

Market dynamics and risk balance

At the moment, gold is consolidating in the 4050–4100-dollar range per troy ounce, balancing between technical resistance and fundamental support. Analysts note that the market is in an equilibrium state: on one hand, a strong dollar and possible pauses in rate cuts may trigger short correction phases; on the other, any escalation of external risks instantly pushes prices higher.

Despite the generally optimistic backdrop, market participants also highlight potential sources of volatility. In the near term, attention should be paid to several key factors:

• Short-term technical pullbacks after reaching local highs.
• A growing share of speculative positions, increasing sensitivity to news flow.
• Dependence on large transactions — institutional buys or sells can set the market tone for several sessions.
• Competition from other asset classes, such as equities, if they stabilize.
• Uncertainty in macroeconomic indicators, which may trigger abrupt revisions in rate expectations.
• Regulatory shifts affecting gold ETFs in certain jurisdictions.

Even so, most forecasts indicate that the balance of risks still favors the bulls. Some analysts warn that even if prices temporarily drop below 3900 dollars, such a decline may simply offer a new entry point for long-term investors.

Outlook for market dynamics

In the medium term, gold may undergo a qualitative shift in its market status. If previously it was viewed primarily as insurance for turbulent periods, it is now evolving into a full-fledged strategic asset in capital management. Analysts at major banks believe that gold prices may reach 4700 dollars and higher in the coming quarters. This outlook is based not on speculation but on models incorporating long-term inflation pressure, changes in the structure of global reserves and weakening confidence in traditional currency instruments.

For investors, this means that exposure to gold ETFs is no longer just a temporary precaution but a durable element of portfolio strategy. Low-fee, highly transparent funds make it possible to implement such strategies at minimal cost. In an environment where many traditional sources of return have exhausted their potential, gold is once again asserting itself as a cornerstone of value preservation rather than merely a short-term trading tool.