The United States is “unreliable to the point of hostility” and Canada, in particular, can no longer depend on its neighbour to respect agreements and come to our defence, a new report from top business leaders warns.

“The United States, under President Donald Trump, has become an unreliable partner,” the report from an expert group on Canada-U.S. relations said. “Its longstanding allies can no longer be confident that America will respect its commitments to come to their defence or respect its economic agreements. That is particularly true for Canada.”

The report, from the expert group co-chaired by Perrin Beaty, former chief executive of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce, and Fen Osler Hampson, professor of International affairs at Carlton University, is excoriating in its criticism of the Trump administration.

It accuses the president of shattering decades of built-up trust and established norms between the two countries on Jan. 20, 2025 — inauguration day — “when annexing Canada became the official policy of the new administration,” a reference to Trump’s comments that the U.S. neighbour would be better off as a 51st state.

The authors go on to say that Trump has flouted the principles or fairness and the rule of law and write that it is questionable that any new trade deal with the U.S. would be of any value.

“Even if we can negotiate an extension of CUSMA (Canada-United-States-Mexico Agreement) and the withdrawal of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration, what is the worth of Donald Trump’s signature?” they said.

They accuse Trump of a lack of “moral constraint” and argue that any future dealings with the U.S. will be guided by the “whims of one man.”

Trump’s threat are harmful for the all countries, but they are especially bad for Canada, given our proximity with the U.S., the report said.

After laying out their views on the state of affairs, the report’s authors offer measures to “mitigate Canada’s risk” of depending on the U.S., and a series of recommendations on how to negotiate with the U.S. on tariffs, the border and security.

Among the major recommendations is the creation of a federal government level “situation room” to advise the prime minister.

Currently, U.S. affairs are addressed across more than 10 federal departments and agencies including the Privy Council Office, the Department of Finance, Canada Border Services Agency and many others.

The “situation room,” would have a streamlining effect, pulling together senior officials from across the government to create “a single, strategic operational focal point” that would co-ordinate responses to developing issues and crises on the U.S. front.

It would also gather input from provinces and unions and have a mandate to model for worst-case scenarios based on Trump’s actions and their potential effects on Canada’s economy and security.

“It should be designed not just for firefighting but also for anticipating the next crisis and where future problems are likely to emerge. In other words, its role must be predictive, prescriptive and, where possible, preventive to head off a crisis before it occurs,” the authors said.

Looking ahead to the coming renegotiation of CUSMA, which is slated to begin in July 2026, the authors stressed that Canada should not rush to begin negotiating.

Instead, Canada should wait for the pressure of job losses, rising inflation and stock market malaise to mount, possibly forcing Trump to pull back on tariff threats.

Mid-term elections in the U.S. could potentially provide a check on Trump and give Canada some bargaining power.

Tariffs of some kind are likely and the authors reminded that prior to the first free trade agreement in 1988, Canada’s “overall” tariff rate was seven per cent while the U.S’s was five.

“Returning to a pre-FTA world will undoubtedly affect our prosperity, but it is a world we have lived in and survived before,” the report said.

Correction: Perrin Beatty was incorrectly identified as chief executive of the Canadian Chamber of Commerce in an earlier version of the story. He is the former CEO. Candace Laing is the current chief executive.

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Canadian oil prices have been unexpectedly resilient so far this year despite escalating trade tensions with the United States, with the discount on Canada’s benchmark heavy oil, Western Canadian Select (WCS), shrinking last week to its narrowest gap since 2020.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to impose tariffs on Canada since his re-election last November initially put pressure on Canadian crude prices. But since early March, when he exempted Canadian goods covered under the CUSMA (CUSMA), and amid fresh U.S. sanctions on rival heavy oil exporter Venezuela, demand for Canadian heavy crude has been particularly strong. — Meghan Potkins, Financial Post

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Today’s Posthaste was written by Gigi Suhanic with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.

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