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Posthaste: Liberals bleeding support as high cost of living pushes past voters to other parties for relief Back to video

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The surprise interest rate hike from the Bank of Canada last week likely didn’t help Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s popularity, as recent research suggests worries about the cost of living are driving past Liberal voters to seek out other parties.

The Trudeau Liberals appear to be bleeding support as the higher cost of living squeezes pocketbooks, with 41 per cent of those having the most trouble financially saying they might vote for another party if an election were held today, according to a poll from the Angus Reid Institute. Another 44 per cent of Liberal voters considered financially “uncomfortable” say they’d do the same. Overall, one third of those who supported the Liberals in the 2021 election say they might choose differently next time.

That comes as many Canadians struggle to cope with elevated inflation and high interest rates that have made everything from food to rent to paying down mortgage and credit card debt more expensive. Some are having a harder time managing than others and past Angus Reid research shows that 30 per cent of Canadians are considered to be “struggling” financially, while one quarter fall into the “uncomfortable” category.

But most Canadians say the rising cost of living tops their list of most pressing concerns facing the country. Sixty-three per cent say they’re most worried about high inflation, followed by 46 per cent who cite health care and 30 per cent who choose housing affordability as the issue they care about most. That focus by the majority on the pain of higher costs might spell trouble for the ruling Liberals, Angus Reid said.

“This latest public opinion survey finds overwhelming concern among Canadians over the cost of living now correlating with a loss of voter support for the ruling party, particularly among its own support-base,” the report said. “Past Liberal voters appear to be moving elsewhere in search of relief.”

Most don’t appear to be moving too far, however. The New Democratic Party, which has been working with the Liberal government amid a confidence agreement, seems to be the main beneficiary of that lost support, with 15 per cent of former Liberal voters saying they’d vote NDP the next time around.

That isn’t to say the Conservative Party of Canada isn’t also winning support. In fact, the poll has the party holding an eight-point lead over the Liberals, with 37 per cent support from decided or leaning voters, compared to 29 per cent for Trudeau’s party, and 20 per cent for the NDP. Some of that support could come down to Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s vocal criticism of the Liberals’ economic policies of ample spending and deficits he says has boosted inflation, forcing the Bank of Canada to raise interest rates to a 20-year high. Last week’s hike by another 25 basis points, which brought the key policy rate to 4.75 per cent, might only make things worse for those struggling. Poilievre was quick to decry the latest increase as a “disaster for the many Canadians barely hanging on.”

Indeed, it’s those feeling the most financial pain who appear to be really paying attention to the Conservatives’ message. According to the poll, half of those wrestling with their finances say they’d vote for Poilievre’s party, compared to 18 per cent who’d vote for the Liberals and 16 per cent for the NDP.

The Liberals appear to be aware that any more economic pain could lead a loss of support at the polls. Following the latest Bank of Canada rate increase, Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland moved to reassure people “anxious” over what the hike would mean for their finances. She emphasized that the labour market and the economy remain strong, and said the availability of good jobs would help people weather the storm. She also pointed out that the Bank of Canada expects inflation to fall to three per cent in the summer months, which is likely to ease the strain on wallets.

“We are coming to the end of this difficult path out of the COVID economy,” she said on June 7. “The destination is stable, low inflation and steady, strong growth. And that is the direction that we are heading.”

The Liberals have been steadily losing the backing of past supporters in the time since the 2021 election. Support from those who voted Liberal in 2021 is down to 67 per cent this month, Angus Reid said, following a drop to 72 per cent at the end of 2022 from 80 per cent in late 2021. In contrast, the Conservatives are holding on to their supporters, and 84 per cent say they’d vote for the party again if an election were held today.

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The data came just a day before Fed policymakers release their latest interest rate decision this afternoon at 2 p.m.

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Today’s Posthaste was written by Victoria Wells (@vwells80), with additional reporting from Financial Post staff, The Canadian Press, Thomson Reuters and Bloomberg.

Have a story idea, pitch, embargoed report, or a suggestion for this newsletter? Email us at posthaste@postmedia.com.