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Posthaste: Canada's slowing jobs market may have perfect, hard or 'softish' landing, TD says Back to video

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Canada’s labour market is in the early stages of a slowdown, and could end up in one of three scenarios: perfect, hard or “softish,” economists at Toronto-Dominion Bank say.

In one scenario, jobs losses could be as low as 50,000, while the unemployment rate could reach nine per cent in another, the economists said in a report published on Sept. 6.

“By our estimates, the unemployment rate needs to reach six per cent (if not higher) to bring balance to the job market,” James Orlando, senior economist at TD Economics, and Tarek Attia, a research analyst, said in the report.

The Bank of Canada is looking for the jobs market to cool to help bring inflation back to its two per cent target. A shortage of workers in the wake of the pandemic helped stoke demand for labour, pushing wages higher and lifting prices. That resulted in the consumer price index hitting a 40-year high last summer. Inflation decelerated to 3.3 per cent in July.

But now, the central bank is starting to get its wish where the jobs market is concerned. The unemployment rate was 5.5 per cent in August, holding steady after rising for three consecutive months. Other signs of cooling include an increase in the number of unemployed people, up 11.6 per cent since April.

Still, average hourly wages increases jumped 4.9 per cent in August from the year before and job vacancies, though down from record highs, remain elevated on a historic basis, meaning the employment picture needs to loosen further for the Bank of Canada’s liking.

Here are TD’s three scenarios for the employment market:

The perfect landing

Probability: 10-20 per cent

Unemployment rate peak: Six per cent

In what Orlando and Attia called a “fairy tale scenario,” the jobs market would slowly reach balance in the spring of 2024, as the number of people available to work rises more quickly than still decent demand for workers.

“The key with this scenario is that total employment may still eke out positive but moderate net gains as firms attempt to retain employees,” the economist said.

Workers would switch jobs less — Statistics Canada’s latest labour force survey shows job churn eased in August — resulting in less bargaining power and a drop in wage increases. Still, pay hikes wouldn’t be expected to reach normal levels until the end of 2024.

That would result in a longer period of higher spending and drag out the fight to tame inflation. But, the economists don’t give this scenario high odds due Canadians’ elevated debt loads and the impacts of high interest rates on their wallets.

The hard landing

Probability: 20-30 per cent

Unemployment rate peak: Seven to nine per cent

This scenario would be the byproduct of a deep recession as interest rate hikes prove “more powerful than expected,” the economists said.

The resulting economic pullback would result in “hefty” job losses of possibly as many as 500,000 positions based on average losses during the last four recessions in Canada.

Inflation would quickly be snuffed out “but widespread job cuts would result in a lengthy recovery,” they said.

Still, Orlando and Attia argue there are factors protecting against a hard landing. Those factors include Canadians’ $100 billion in excess savings, a growing population that increases labour supply but also creates demand, and the fact there are industries where employment levels have yet to fully recover from the pandemic, including the accommodation/food services and natural resources sectors. In this scenario, those sectors are less likely to let workers go because staffing levels are already low.

“Industries such as construction, trade, transport, and health care have a long pipeline of projects and firms are likely to make all attempts to retain workers, if not add to their workforce,” the economists wrote.

The ‘softish’ or baseline landing

Probability: 60 per cent

Unemployment rate peak: 6.7 per cent

TD forecasts net job losses of 50,000 starting at the end of the year, with the jobless rate hitting its peak over the next year.

“While there are currently buffers in place to prevent a hard landing, the economy is entering a delicate stage — one that will require greater attention from the Bank of Canada as it attempts to land the plane as softly as possible,” Orlando and Attia said.

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The prospect that eurozone interest rate hikes may be over will do little to soften the blow as the European Central Bank tightens the screws on a faltering economy, Bloomberg reports.

Thursday’s move to raise borrowing costs for a tenth consecutive time marks the entry into new territory for policymakers, led by president Christine Lagarde, as their visible hesitation points to awareness of how they’re dialing up the pain to pummel inflation.

The decision to bring the deposit rate to four per cent came with the vague hope of bringing consumer-price growth below two per cent at the very end of the ECB’s outlook in 2025.

Read the full story here.

Hey, post-secondary students and their parents: it pays to know a few things now to help maximize the benefits and reduce the taxes payable come next April … and beyond, says tax expert Jamie Golombek. The first and most important thing is to file a tax return since there are several benefits only available to those who do.

Today’s Posthaste was written by Gigi Suhanic, (@gsuhanic), with additional reporting from The Canadian Press and Bloomberg.

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