Bond market says interest rate cut by July is pretty much a lock
Robert McLister: Two noteworthy shifts on mortgage battlefield this week, with two key rates falling
Canada’s latest rate-friendly inflation report has markets once again thinking there’s a chance the Bank of Canada will start rolling back rates on June 5.
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Bond market says interest rate cut by July is pretty much a lock Back to video
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And we’re not talking about a Lloyd Christmas Dumb and Dumber chance, it’s a decent 55 per cent probability — stronger than your everyday coin toss according to implied rates in the bond market.
The always fickle bond market implies that a cut by July is pretty much a lock. But stay prepared for the unexpected as the Bank of Canada will get a slew of data — including two more inflation reports — before it hands down its next rate verdict.
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On the mortgage battleground, there were two noteworthy shifts this week. The lowest nationally advertised insured five-year fixed dipped a tidy 10 basis points (bps) to 4.59 per cent at Citadel Mortgages. More interestingly, its lowest advertised uninsured variable dove a whopping 41 bps to 6.29 per cent.
As usual, shop around. Regional providers are offering even lower variable rates in some provinces, namely Butler Mortgage’s 6.15 per cent — which drops to 6.05 per cent on million-dollar-plus mortgages.
Robert McLister is a mortgage strategist, interest rate analyst and editor of MortgageLogic.news. You can follow him on X at @RobMcLister.
Want to know more about the mortgage? Read Robert McLister’s new weekly column in the Financial Post for the latest trends and details on financing opportunities you won’t want to miss.
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